Baseline survey of literature on environmental risk

Rapport 2013/38

Haakon Vennemo

Baseline survey of literature on environmental risk

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R	E	PORT	 	
2013/38	 	
Hans Martin Seip	 
 	
 	
Baseline survey of literature on 	
environmental risk

Baseline survey of literature on environmental risk	 	
Vista Anal	ysis AS	 	1 	
Document Details	 	
Vista Analysis AS	 	Report number 	2013/38	 	 	
Title 	 	Baseline survey of literature on environmental 
risk	 	
 	
ISBN	 	978	-82	-8126	-134	-1 	 	
Author	 	Hans Martin Seip	 	 	
Finished date	 	September 20, 2013	 	 	
Project Manager	 	Haakon Vennemo	 	 	
Quality Control	 	Kristin Aunan	 	 	
Client	 	Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning	 	 	
Access	 	Public	 	 	
Published 	 	pdf	 	 	
Key words	 	Environmental risk, environmental 	planning, 	
China

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Pref ace	 	
 
This report gives an overview of major environmental problems related to 
the rapid economic growth in China both for accidents and continuous 
emissions based on literature from the last few years. Methods for 
evaluating risks an	d preventing accidents especially related to hazardous 	
chemicals are described in several papers. Other major problems are 
caused by emissions of nitrogen compounds from industry, traffic and 
agriculture and emissions of heavy metals in particular mercury.	 A few 	
recent studies using GAINS (Greenhouse gas	–air pollution Interactions and 	
Synergies) model or related methods are described. Among emerging issues 
production of unconventional gas, in particular shale gas, is considered 
briefly. Of the large number 	of recent papers only those considered most 	
relevant for China are included. Many of the issues dealt with have special 
relevance for	 Jiangsu and Guizhou Provinces.	 	
 
Haakon Vennemo	 	
Project Manager	 	
Vista Analysis AS

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Content	 	
Preface	 ................................	................................	................................	................................	................................	. 2 	
1 	Introduction	 ................................	................................	................................	................................	.............	 5 	
2 	Accident related pollution	 ................................	................................	................................	..................	 6 	
3 	Recent studies of environmental problems with focus on China	 ................................	.....	 14	 	
3.1	 	Studies mainly based on GAINS	 ................................	................................	...........................	 14	 	
3.2	 	Haze and other air pollution	 ................................	................................	................................	. 15	 	
3.3	 	Studies with emphasis on agricultu	re	 ................................	................................	...............	 18	 	
3.4	 	Water pollution	 ................................	................................	................................	..........................	 20	 	
3.5	 	Heavy metals with emphasis on mercury	 ................................	................................	........	 20	 	
4 	Unconventional natural gas 	– an emerging problem?	 ................................	..........................	 23	 	
References	 ................................	................................	................................	................................	.......................	 25	 	
Appendix 1. Some recent articles on environmental problems in China in blogs and mass 
media.	 ................................	................................	................................	................................	................................	 29	 	
Appendix 2. The Awareness and Preparedness for Emergencies at Local Level (APELL) 
programme and Responsible Prod	uction Approach	 ................................	................................	......	 31	 	
5 	Appendix 3. Assessing results of Chinese Environmental policy	 ................................	.....	 34	 	
 
Tables: 	 	
Table 1	 	Mercury concentrations in rice in China (from Lin et al., 2012).	 .......................	 21	 	
Table 2	 	Environmental Hg concentrations in China: Heavily contaminated sites (Lin 	
et al., 2012).	 ................................	................................	................................	................................	...........	 21	 	
 
Figures: 	 	
Figure 1	 	Sectorial trend in SO2 emissions from 1990 to 2011, Tg SO2.	 ..........................	 5 	
Figure 2	 	NH	3 and NO	x emissions and ratios of NH	3-N to NO	x-N emission.	..........................	 6

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Figure 3	 	Number of hazardous chemical accidents (HCAs) occurring in China from 	
2006 to 2010.	................................	................................	................................	................................	...........	 7 	
Figure 4	 	Responsible production framework.	 ................................	................................	...............	 8 	
Figure 5	 	Regional scale mapping index system of environmental pollut	ion accident 	
risk	 	10	 	
Figure 6	 	Framework of the early warning system,	 ................................	................................	... 10	 	
Fig	ure 7	 	Comprehensive risk assessment index system for enterprises in chemical 	
industrial parks	................................	................................	................................	................................	....	 11	 	
Figure 8	 	Risk levels of layer B 	(see 	Figure 7	) indices of chemical enterprises in Songmu 	
Island Chemical Industrial Park Dalian, Liaoning province, which consists of syngas 
chemical, petrochemical, and fine chemical industries, with ten chemical enterprises.	 .. 12	 	
Figure 9	 	Major dangerous chemical accidents in China, 1970	–2009	 ................................	. 13	 	
Figure 10	 	The left map indicates the spatial distribution of annual mass 	
concentration of secondary inorganic aerosol for 2006. The remaining maps 
indicat	e the sensitivity of the aerosol to a 10% increase in precursor emissions 	
(NO	x, SO	2, or NH	3) ................................	................................	................................	...............................	 16	 	
Figure 11	 	Emission Factor	 ................................	................................	................................	................	 17	 	
Figure 12	 	Schematic structure of the model used by Fischer et al.	 ................................	.. 19	 	
Figure 13	 	Ammonia emissions from agriculture (kg ammonia/ha cultivated land) in 	
2000 (left) and estimated for 2030 (right).	 ................................	................................	..............	 20

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1 	Introduction	 	
According to the project description, t	he environmental planning phase II project 	
follows up on the phase I project. The phase II project emph	asizes training in CBA and 	
SEA (Strategic Environmental Assessment) for environmental planning, and the 
application of CBA and SEA to planning for environmental risk reduction/prevention.	 In 	
this report we will look at some recent developments based on pub	lications for the last 	
two	-three years. 	 	
Recent development in environmental conditions in China is mixed. Although estimates 
differ, the total SO	2 emissions seem to have decreased since about 2005, see 	figure	 1. 	
Also, many areas report reduced concentrat	ions of particulate matter (PM) and SO	2 	
concentrations in air. However, emissions of ammonia and nitrogen oxides have 
increased, see Fig. 2. Many observations of severe pollution episodes have been 
described especially in blogs such as Chinadialogue and m	ass media, and critique of lack 	
of progress has been expressed. Links to some of these recent articles are given in 
Appendix 1. 	 	
According to 	Global Burden of Disease Study 2010	, outdoor air pollution contributed to 	
1.2 million premature deaths in	 China in	 2010, nearly 40 percent of the global total	. 	
http://www.thelancet.com/themed/global	-burden	-of-disease	 	
 	
 
Figure 	1 	Sectorial trend in SO2 emissions from 	 	
 	 	1990 to 2011, Tg SO2.	 	
Source:	 From Klimont et al., 2013.	 The GAINS (Greenhouse gas	–air 	
pollution Interactions and Synergies) model was used to calculate	 land 	
based anthropogenic emissions for 2000, 2005 and	 2010, while annual 	
energy consumption data was	 use	d to scale these estimates for 	
intermediate years and	 extending to produce a preliminary estimate 	
for 2011	 	
.

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Figure 	2 	NH	3 and NO	x emissions and ratios of NH	3-N to NO	x-N emission	. 	
Source: 	From Liu	,X. et al., 2013.	 	
 
This report will mainly build on 	articles published in international journals. Section 2 	
deals with pollution resulting from accidents. Analyses of previous accidents have been 
made and several schemes have been suggested for evaluating	 risks and prevent 	
accidents. Several of these will be described. However, a detailed assessment of the 
schemes is beyond the scope of the report. In Section 3 some important environmental 
problems with special relevance for China are described. The sectio	n includes recent 	
studies using the GAINS model or related methods. Of the large number of recent papers 
only those considered most relevant for China are included. Further some 	publications 	
dealing with mercury and other heavy metals in China	 are discusse	d. Reasons for 	
emphasis on mercury are that China has the largest Hg	-emissions to the atmosphere in 	
the world and 	Guizhou Province	 is the “Hg capital” of 	China. 	Section 4 describes very 	
briefly some questions and problems related to unconventional natural 	gas production 	
since this is by some predicted to become a major energy source in China.	 	
2 	Accident related pollution 	 	
An important paper was published by He	-Da Zhang and Xiao	-Ping Zheng at School of 	
Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical	 Technology in 2012. They 	
used data from official sources for 1632 hazardous chemical accidents (HCAs) occurring

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in China from 2006 to 2010	, more than 2/3 in fixed facilities (see fig. 3). They found	 a 	
slight increase in the annual number during the period	. Zhao et al. (2012), on the other 	
hand	, reported a decrease in number of chemical accidents in China from 2004 to 2011 	
and also for the 2006 	– 2010 period	. However, their annual number of accidents is	 much 	
smaller than 	reported by	 Zhang and Zheng so the s	election criteria are clearly different.	 	
(See further discussion of the paper by Zhao et al. below.) 	 	
Zhang and Zheng give a table for the number of accidents 	in the provinces 	during the 	
period,	 main hazardous chemicals involved, and main industries. For	 three provinces 	
more than one hundred chemical accidents were reported (Jiangsu,	 Shandong, and 	
Zhejiang). These provinces are	 economically developed regions with many 	
petrochemical factories. The numbers for Anhui and Guizhou are 54 and 21, 
respectively. 	Altogether, 26.8%	 of 	the 	HCAs occurred in Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang 	
province	s due to	 their many petrochemical industries	. 	
For fixed facility HCAs, nearly 90% of 	the 	cases occurred as a result of conscious rule	-	
breaking behavior (e.g., breach of duty)	, whereas unconscious rule	-breaking behavior 	
(e.g., a careless operation or negligence) accounted for 	only 	10%.	 	
Important conclusions from the study include that i	n the efforts to	 prevent HCAs in 	
China, enterprises should shift their focus from	 immediate 	human factors and concerns 	
over advanced equipment	 requirements to the regulation of internal management issues 	
(e.g.,	 procedures constraints, training, inspection and equipment maintenance).	 The	 	
government	 should administer	 more external supervision and	 enforcement, particularly 	
in remote	 townships and villages where illegal workshops remain. Furthermore,	 	
government should enforce real	-time supervision in order to	 prevent non	-quali	fied 	
transportation of hazardous chemicals.	 	
 	
 	
Figure 	3 	Number of hazardous chemical accidents (HCAs) occurring in China 
from 2006 to 2010. 	 	
Source: 	From Zhang and Zheng, 2012.

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Another important paper is by Jinsong Zhao at Department of Chemical Engineering, 
Tsinghua University and covorkers. (	Process sa	fety challenges for SMEs	1 in China, 2012	) 	
The starting point is UNEP	’s “Responsible Production approach for Chemical Hazards 	
Management along the Value	-Chain	”, see Figure 4 and Appendix 2. A 	simpli	fied PSM	2 	
approach targeted speci	fically at SMEs is suggest	ed. 	 	
 	
 	
 
Figure 	4 	Responsible production framework.	 	
 
Zhao et al. point out that t	he	 current trend in China of clustering all chemical companies 	
in	 chemical industry parks points to increased challenges posed by	 the increased 	
conce	ntration of hazards, but also to opportunities	 for increased leadership and 	
harmonization of safety practices	 across the chemical sector, with government and park 	
management	 authorities playing a decisive role. 	By sharing common	 infrastructure and 	
park man	age	ment standards and requirements, 	enhanced opportunities are created for 	
companies to share	 knowledge and best practice, towards the creation of a safety	 	
culture championed by more progressive companies	. 	
Environmental risk assessment (ERA) with focus on	 industrial parks is also considered 	
by 	Chaofeng	 Shao at 	Nankai University, Tianjin 	and coworkers (2013). They conclude:	 	
Unlike a single construction project, regional ERA and management are classified as new 
strategies in environmental risk management. 	These strategies resolve the multiple 	
uncertainties of risk sources and their effects, non	-additivity of the consequences of 	
accidents, and other factors. In this study, a systematic analysis of the mechanisms 
underlying environmental risks was conducted, 	and an ERA method based on risk field 	
theory was established. Theories and methods were proposed for environmental risk 
zoning in industrial parks.	 	
The theories and methods of regional ERA and management remain in the development 
stage. In particular, the	 regional environmental risk spatial and temporal zoning, multi	-	
risk coupling and risk	-field superimposition as well as regional environmental risk 	
capacity allocation are in the exploratory stage. Despite the establishment of the ERA 
 	 	 	
1 Small and medium sized 	enterprises	 	2 Process Safety Management

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technology and manage	ment mechanism in chemical industry parks, further tests, 	
optimization, and upgrade, combined with application practices, are required, which 
should be based on the investigation and evaluation of risk sources in multiple chemical 
industry parks.	 	
R. Z. Li	u at 	Beijing Normal 	University and coworkers	 (2012) 	have outlined	 details of an 	
Environmen	tal Pollution Accident Risk Mapping (EPARM) approach for assessing and 	
mapping such risk at the scale of a city. 	The EPARM approach consists of identifying 	
suitable i	ndexes, assessment of environmental risk at regional and national scales based 	
on information on previous pollution accidents and the prevailing environmental and 
social conditions, and use of GIS to map the overall risk.	 EPARM is constructed according 	
to 	a regional risk system for e	nvi	ronmental pollution hazards due to accidents. The 	
approach involves development of a mapping index system, evaluation of risk sub	-	
indexes, calculation of higher	-layer indexes, and zonal risk mapping. The mapping 	
indexes are p	ertinent and complete, having been derived from the causative system of 	
accidental environmental pollution risk	, see figure 5.

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Figure 	5 	Regional scale mapping index system of environmental pollution 
accident risk 	 	
Source: 	From 	Liu et al., 2012	 	
Lei Huang and coworkers (2011) developed a 	two	-scale system to identify 	
environmental risk of chemical industry clusters	. A series of risk early warning indices 	
both 	at 	the	 plant	 level and 	at the 	regional clusters level are used in this 	system. 	At the 	
enterprise scale	 a risk early warning index is constructed using inputs such as the 	
presence of hazardous materials, the	 operation of critical plant equipment and the 	
efficiency of extant management techniques. Secondly, an	 index for quantif	ying risks on 	
regional scales depends on environmental, economic, and social conditions	 as well as 	
the specific enterprises’ components. As an illustration, the system is applied to a case 
study	 involving a five	-plant chemical industry cl	uster in Jiangsu p	rovince	. The 	
framework is shown in figure 6.	 	
 	
 	
Figure 	6 	Framework of the early warning system,	 	
Source: 	From Huang et al., 2011.

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Yu Chen at 	Dalian University of Technology and coworkers	 (2012) have developed	 a 	
comprehensive evalua	tion index system for risk assessment of chemical enterprises in 	
Chemical Industrial Parks (	CIPs	) b	ased on environmental risk systems theory	. The three 	
indices include	 the inherent	 risk associated with risk source, effectiveness of prevention 	
and control m	echanisms, and vulnerability	 of receptors. Among these, the inherent risk 	
index associated with risk source is determined by	 multiple factors such as the stock, 	
toxicity, flammability/explosibility and production process of	 hazardous substances	. 	
The effect	iveness of prevention and control mechanisms is determined by	 the	 	
environmental management level and fire/medical rescue situation of the enterprise 
and the	 receptor vulnerability is calculated based on the density and structure of 	
surrounding populations 	and	 the distance of sensitive targets from the enterprise	, see 	
figure 7	. 	
 	
 
Figure 	7 	Comprehensive risk assessment index system for enterprises in 
chemical industrial parks 	 	
Source: 	Chen et al., 2012	 	
 
Results for a case study 	are	 shown 	in figure 8	.

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Figure 	8 	Risk levels of layer B (see	 Figure	 7) indices of chemical enterprises in 	
Songmu Island Chemical Industrial Park Dalian, Liaoning province, 
which consists of syngas chemical, petrochemical, and fine chem	ical 	
industries, with ten chemical enterprises.	 	
Source: 	Chen et al., 2012	 	
Yan Fu Wang	 at 	China University of Petroleum, Qing Dao	, and coworkers (2013) proposed	 	
an accident analysis model to develop cost	-efficient safety measures for	 preventing 	
accidents. T	he model comprises two parts. In the first part, a quantitative accident 	
analysis	 model is built by integrating 	the 	Human Factors Analysis and Classification 	
System (HFACS) with	 a Bayesian	 Network (BN), which can be utilized to present the 	
corresponding pr	evention measures. In the second	 part, the proposed prevention 	
measures are ranked in a cost	-effectiveness manner through Best	-Fit	 method and 	
Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach. A case study of vessel collision is analyzed as an	 	
illustration. The case stud	y shows that the proposed model can be used to seek out 	
accident causes and	 rank the derived safety measures from a cost	-effectiveness 	
perspective. 	The proposed model can provide	 accident investigators with a tool to 	
generate cost	-efficient safety interven	tion strategies.	 	
Guizhen He	 at 	Research Centre for Eco	-Environmental Sciences, Beijing	 and coworkers 	
(2011) stated that 	the current chemical accident	-related data system is highly 	
fragmented and incomplete, as	 different responsible authorities adopt diffe	rent data 	
collection standards and procedures for different	 purposes. 	To contribute to the 	
building	 of a more comprehensive, integrated and effective information system, 	they	: (i)	 	
reviewed and assessed	 the existing data sources an	d data management, (ii) an	alyzed	 	
data on 976 recorded	 major hazardous chemical accidents in China over the last 40 	
years, and (iii) identifie	d the improvements	 required for developing integrated risk 	
management in China.

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Among the conclusions are: 	For the sustainable development o	f a fast expanding 	
chemical	 sector in China, it is strategically important to move from responding	 	
reactively to preventing proactively risks and accidents. This	 calls for a	 more 	
coordinated	 management	 of comprehensive	 information	 system that gives more we	ight 	
to environmental pollution	 information of the chemical accidents. A comprehensive and 	
publicly	 accessible information system would not only increase the	 efficiency and 	
effectiveness of accident prevention and responses,	 but also help raise public awar	eness 	
and gain support from the	 society at large.	 	
 	
 
Figure 	9 	Major dangerous chemical accidents in China, 1970	–2009 	 	
Source: 	from He et al., 2011	 	
Yu Hou (2012) criticizes the Chinese policy regarding accidents causing serious da	mage 	
to health and environment. He studied two accidents in China in 2006 that caused 
serious 	environmental problems in nearby communities and discusses the problems 	
these accidents	 created and the resulting disputes among the concerned people. He 	
stresses	 the importance of	 addressing the apparent weakness of oversight as shown by 	
the continued operation of companies	 without environmental licens	es.

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3 	Recent studies of environmental problems with f ocus on 
China	 	
3.1	 Studies mainly based on GAINS	 	
Fei Liu at Tsingh	ua University, Beijing and coworkers (2013) developed a city	-scale 	
emission	 model (GAINS	-City) 	for Beijing 	based on the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution 	
Interactions and	 Synergies (GAINS) model. The GAINS	-City model relies on a 	
technology	-based approach t	o evaluate the co	-benefits of various policies. This approach 	
allows for estimation of emission reductions of several pollutants (including SO	2, NO	X, 	
PM) and CO	2 for individual policies and support evaluation of co	-benefits. Liu et al. claim 	
that the appro	ach will have great potential to be applied in many large cities with local 	
input data and/or minor structure modifications.	 	
The emissions under three scenarios (	Baseline	, Air Quality	, and 	Strict Air Quality	) in base 	
year (2005) and future years (2020 and	 2030) were estimated. The results indicate a 	
significant reduction potential. In 2030, implementation of 	Air Quality 	and 	Strict Air 	
Quality 	scenarios could result in reductions of 39%	-48% of SO	2 emissions, 38%	-42% of 	
NO	X emissions, 37%	-55% of PM	2.5	 emissi	ons and 5%	-22% of CO	2 emissions respectively, 	
compared with the Baseline scenario. The results demonstrated air quality policies and 
measures could also have co	-benefits of reducing CO	2 emissions. However, there is no 	
significant difference of reductions b	etween the two policy scenarios, which indicates 	
the limited further reduction potential in the stricter air quality case. This	 calls for a 	
wider application of cleaner technologies, 	such as 	integrated gasification combined cycle	 	
and 	carbon capture and sto	rage	, and more aggressive air quality measures by 	
neighboring provinces to control regional air pollution.	 	
P. Rafaj and J. Cofala	 (2013) studied 	ancillary benefits of climate policies for the 	
mitigation of a	tmospheric	 mercury e	missions	. The	 study provides	 an analysis of the 	
impact of global climate policies on mercury emissions	 using the 	GAINS	 model in the 	
time horizon up	 to 2050. The time evolution of mercury emissions is based on 	
projections of energy consumption provided by	 the Prospective Outlook for t	he Long 	
term Energy System (POLES) model for a scenario without any global	 greenhouse gas 	
mitigation efforts, and for a 2°C climate policy scenario, which assumes internationally	 	
coordinated action to mitigate climate change. Outcomes of the analysis are r	eported 	
globally and for key	 world regions: EU	-27, China, India and the US. Scenario calculations 	
for mercury emissions indicate significant scope for	 co	-benefits made possible through 	
climate policies.	 Atmospheric releases of mercury from anthropogenic	 so	urces under 	
the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 45% when compared to the 
case	 without climate measures. Around one third of co	-benefits for mercury emissions 	
estimated world	-wide in this	 study by 2050 are allocated to China. An annu	al Hg	-	
abatement of about 800 tons is estimated for the coal	 combustion in power sector if the 	
current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel.	 	
Since nitrogen emissions are an increasing problem in China, the recent study by 	Hans J. 	
M. Van Grinsven	 and coworkers (2013) may be of interest although it is for Europe. The	 	
paper	, which partly is based on GAINS, 	provides a critical	 and comprehensive 	
assessment of costs and benefits of the various flows of N on	 human health, ecosyste	ms 	
and climate stability in order to identify major options for	 mitigation.	 A good treatment 	
of uncertainties is given.

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3.2	 Haze and other air pollution	 	
Litao Wang at 	Hebei University of Engineering, Handan	 and c	oworkers 	(2012) 	studied 	
ha	ze pollution over th	e Hebei area 	using an air quality model. They found 	that 	
approximately 65% of the PM	2.5	 in Shijiazhuang and Xingtai originated from the local	 	
emissions of the southern Hebei area, followed by Shanxi Province and the northern 
area of Hebei (13.8%	 and 7.3% t	o Shijiazhuang and 10.4% and 5.2% to Xingtai, 	
respectively). Moreover, an analysis of	 a typical pollution episode indicates that the 	
contributions from the Shandong and Henan provinces are	 also significant. Further 	
investigations are still required because	 of the complexity of the haze pollution	 over the 	
southern Hebei area.	 	
K. Huang at 	Fudan University,	 Shanghai	 and coworkers (2012) studied the i	mpact of 	
anthropogenic emission on air quality over a megacity 	by 	an intensive atmospheric 	
campaign during the	 Chinese Spring Festival.	 The study demonstrated	 that organic 	
aerosol was the largest contributor	 to aerosol extinction at 47 %, followed by sulfate	 	
ammonium, nitrate ammonium, and EC 	(elemental carbon	 ) at 22 %, 14 %, and	 12 %, 	
respectively. 	The	 results in	dicated the dominant role	 of traffic	-related aerosol species 	
(i.e. organic aerosol, nitrate	 and 	elemental carbon	) on the formation of air pollution, and 	
suggested the	 importance of controlling vehicle numbers and emissions in	 mega	-cities of 	
China as its po	pulation and economy continue	 to grow.	 	
Another similar study by the same group on p	ollution characterization and source 	
analysis in Shanghai before, during	, and after the 2010 World Expo has been carried out, 	
but so far only an abstract seems to have been	 published (Huang et al., 2013).	 	
S. K. Kharol at 	Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada	 and coworkers (2013)	 	
use	d a chemical transport model and its adjoint to	 examine the sensitivity of secondary 	
inorganic aerosol	 formation to emissions of pr	ecursor trace gases from Asia	, see figure 	
10	. Sensitivity simulations indicate that secondary inorganic	 aerosol mass 	
concentrations are most sensitive to ammonia	 (NH	3) emissions in winter and to sulfur 	
dioxide (SO	2) emissions during the rest of the year. 	However, p	ersistent sensitivity to 	
NO	x arises	 from the regional abundance of NH	3 over Asia that promotes	 ammonium 	
nitrate formation. 	Satellite observations	 corroborate the NH	3 abundance. 	The authors 	
encourage more attention to NO	x controls in addition to SO	2 and NH	3 controls to reduce 	
ground	-level East Asian aerosol.

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Figure 	10	 	The left map indicates the spatial distribution of annual mass 
concentration of secondary inorganic aerosol for 2006. The 
remaining maps indicat	e the sensitivity of the aerosol to a 10% 	
increase in precursor emissions (NO	x, SO	2, or NH	3) 	
Source: 	From 	Kharol et a	l., 2013	 	
Based on a 	chemical transport model	, Y. 	Wang 	at 	Tsinghua University, Beijing, 	and 	
coworkers (2013) 	suggest	ed	 that the SO	2 emi	ssion reduction	 target set by the 12th FYP, 	
although effective in reducing	 sulfate	-nitrate	-ammonium (SNA) aerosols over	 South 	
China (SC) and Sichuan Basin (SCB), will not be successful over 	North China (NC)	, where	 	
NOx emission control needs to be strengthe	ned. If	 NH	3 emissions are allowed to keep 	
their recent growth rate	 and increase by 	+16%	 from 2006 to 2015, the benefit of SO	2 	
reduction will be completely offset over all of China due to	 the significant increase of 	
nitrate, demonstrating the critical	 role	 of NH	3. The effective strategy to	 control SNA and 	
hence PM	2.5 pollution over China should thus be based on improving understanding of 	
current NH	3 emissions and putting more emphasis on controlling NH	3 emissions in the 	
future.	 	
W	enjia	 Cai at 	Tsinghua Univ	ersity, Beijing and coworkers 	(2013) estimated b	aseline 	
emission factors	 for SO	2, NO	x and PM	2.5	, see figure	 11	. (Not using GAINS) It was 	
estimated that in 2010, every 1% CO	2 reduction in China’s power generation sector 	
resulted in co	-reductions of 1.1%, 0	.5%, and 0.8% of SO	2, NO	X, and PM	2.5	, respectively. 	
Wind is the best technology to achieve the largest amount of co	-abatement in most parts 	
of China. This methodology is recommended to be used in making comprehensive air 
pollution control strategies and in	 co	-benefits analysis in future CDM approval 	
processes.

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Figure 	11	 	Emission Factor	 	
Source: 	from Cai et al., (2013).	 	
Kyung	-Min 	Nam	 at Massachusetts Institute of Technology 	and coworkers (2012) 	
investigated the costs of achievin	g the reductions in SO	2 and NO	x in China’s	 Twelfth Five 	
Year Plan (FYP)	 and the implications of doing so for CO	2 emissions. 	The analysis 	was 	
extended 	through 2050, and emissions policy targets 	were 	either hold at the level 	
specified in	 the Twelfth FYP, or	 reduce	d gradually. 	They applied a	 computable general 	
equilibrium model of the Chinese economy that includes a	 representation of pollution 	
abatement derived from detailed assessment of abatement technology and costs. 	They 	
found	 that China’s SO	2 and NO	x emis	sions control targets would have substantial effects 	
on CO	2 emissions leading to emissions savings far beyond those we estimate would be 	
needed to meet its CO	2 intensity targets. However, the cost of achieving and maintaining 	
the pollution targets can be q	uite high given the growing economy. 	Actually	 the Twelfth 	
FYP pollution targets can be met while still expanding the use of coal, but if they are, 
then there is a lock	-in effect that makes it more costly to maintain or further reduce 	
emissions. That is, if	 firms were to look ahead to tighter targets, they would make 	
different technology choices in the near term, largely turning away from increased use of 
coal immediately.	 	
Jiahai Yuan and cow	orkers (2011	) review 	energy conservation	 (EC)	 and emissions 	
reduct	ion 	(ER) 	in China	. Lessons from the 11th	 FYP periods are drawn and factors 	
underlying and limiting the policy formulation and implementation	 are discussed to 	
probe 	problems	 and solutions. Rationality and feasibility	 analysis on 	the 	12th FYP EC 	
and ER targ	et is also addressed. 	Policy suggestions are	 proposed for long	-term 	
successful implementation of EC and ER in China.

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Since the NOx emissions are a key to ozone formation one should note that recent 
predictions of ozone damage to important crops indicate t	hat this may become larger 	
than several earlier predictions, see Amin et al., 2013.	 	
Another paper on effects of air pollution of special interest for cost	-benefit analyses has 	
been published by Jie Cao and coworkers (2011). It describes a	ssociation betwee	n long	-	
term exposure to outdoor air pollution and mortality	 in China	. 	
3.3	 	Studies with emphasis on agriculture	 	
Agriculture is a major source of water, air and soil pollution. Pollution rates are often 
linked to	 intensification of agricultural activities, i.e.,	 large	-scale livestock production 	
and excessive fertilization of	 crops. 	 	
G. Fischer at 	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) 	and coworkers 	
(2010; 2012) 	develop	ed	 a concept of a spatially and temporally explicit model for 	
sustainable	 agriculture production planning, which operates at a detailed spatial scale 	
and integrates demand and	 agricultural production activities at national and sub	-	
national levels	, see figure 12	. It distinguishes	 environmental	 loads and sources of 	
agricultural p	ollution originating from two main agricultural activities: livestock	 raising 	
and crop production. The indicators used to reflect the impacts of agricultural 
production	 comprise of fluxes to air (emissions of ammonia and nitrous oxide) and 	
water (nitrate l	eaching	). Risk functions indicate the degree of risk associated with 	
agricultural production. Alternative production scenarios are compared in terms of 
human exposure to risk, i.e., the	 number of people in different risk classes. In this way 	
the model allo	ws for assessment and testing of	 strategies for mitigating agricultural 	
pollution. Application of the integrated model is illustrated by a	 case study of 	
agricultural production development in China. 	Results for ammonia emissions are 	
shown in figure 13.

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Figure 	12	 	Schematic structure of the model used by Fischer et al.	 	
Source: 	Fisher et al.

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Figure 	13	 	Ammonia emissions from agriculture (kg ammonia/ha cultivated 
land) in 2000 (left	) and estimated fo	r 2030 (right	). 	
Source:	 from Fischer et al., 2012.	 	
3.4	 	Water pollution	 	
Jian 	Sha 	at 	Nankai University, Tianjin	 and coworkers 	(2013) described a modeling 	
approach for quantifying the source apportionment of dissolved nitrogen (DN) and 
associated tools for exam	ining the sensitivity and uncertainty of the model estimates	. 	
Results	 were assessed for the Sha He River (SHR) watershed in China. 	The SHR is	 	
representative	 of many watersheds in the region because of its main environmental	 	
issue, excess nitrogen. Because 	it is the main natural	 recharge source of the Yu Qiao 	
Reservoir (YQR, the source of	 drinking water for Tianjin City), the water quality of the 	
SHR is of	 critical concern. 	 	
The Regional Nutrient Management model (ReNuMa) was used to infer the primary 
sourc	es of DN in the SHR watershed. This model is based on the Generalized	 Watershed	 	
Loading Functions (GWLF) and the Net Anthropogenic Nutrient Input (NANI) 
framework, modified to	 improve the	 characterization of subsurface hydrology and 	
septic system loads. Hy	drochemical processes	 of the SHR watershed, including 	
streamflow, DN load fluxes, and corresponding DN concentration responses,	 were 	
simulated following calibrations against observations of streamflow and DN fluxes. 	 	
3.5	 	Heavy metals with emphasis on mercury	 	
Yan Lin at 	Norwegian Institute for Water Research, Oslo	 and coworkers (2012) have 	
written a review on environmental mercury in China. 	China is the country that 	
contributes most to atmospheric 	mercury (Hg)	 emissions and has the greatest 	
intentional (industr	ial) use of Hg. Mercury in the Chinese	 environment is generally 	
elevated, particularly in air and water bodies. Remote areas in China also show elevated 
Hg levels in air and	 water bodies compared to other rural regions in the world. Large 	
river estuaries a	re often heavily affected by upstream industrial sources.	 Mercury is also 	
elevated in sediments, a direct result of contamination in river systems. Regardless of 
the few heavily polluted sites, the	 urban environment in Chinese cities is comparable to

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that 	of other megacities in terms of Hg pollution, considering the size and rapid	 	
development of Chinese cities. Studies on Hg in fish showed generally low levels of 
contamination resulting from low bioaccumulation	 of Hg in the mostly short food chains. 	
Mercury	 in rice has recently received increased research interest; elevated 	
concentrations have	 been reported from rice grown in contaminated areas and may 	
pose a threat to people dependent on such locally grown food. 	However, f	or the	 general 	
population, Hg	 expos	ure from rice is	 small	 (Table 1)	. In addition, Hg hair concentration 	
in the Chinese population showed	 generally low levels of exposure to Hg, except for 	
people with special occupational exposure	. Some values for Hg in water, soils and 	
sediments are given i	n Table 2.	 	
 
Table 	1 	M	ercury concentrations in 	rice in 	China	 (from Lin et al., 2012).	 	
 	
 
 
 
Table 	2 	Environmental Hg concentrations in China: Heavily contaminated 
sites	 (Lin et al., 2012).

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Yonghua	 Li at Ins	titute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources	 Research, Chinese 	
Academy of Sciences, Beijing	 (2013) describes a	 field survey of mercury pollution in	 	
environmental media and human hair samples obtained	 from	 residents living in the area 	
surrounding the	 Chatian	 mercury mine (CMM) of southwestern China	. H	ealth risks of 	
mercury to	 local re	sidents were evaluated. M	ine	 waste, and	 tailings in particular, 	
contained high levels of mercury	 and the maximum mercury concentration was	 88.50 μ	g 	
g-1. Elevated mercury levels were also found	 in local surface water, paddy soil, and 	
paddy grain,	 which may cause severe health problems. The mercury	 concentration of 	
hair samples from	 the inhabitants of the	 CMM exceeded 1.0 μ	g g	-1, which is the 	limit 	
recommended	 by the US EPA. The average daily dose	 (ADD) of mercury for local adults 	
and preschool	 children via oral exposure reached 0.241 and	 0.624 	μg kg	-1 body weight 	
per day, respectively,	 which is 	approaching or exceeds the provisional tolerable	 daily 	
intake.	 Among the three oral exposure routes,	 the greatest contributor to the ADD of 	
mercury was the	 ingestion of rice grain.	 Open	-stacked	 mine tailings have	 resulted in 	
heavy mercury contamination in the surrounding	 soil, and the depth of appreciabl	e soil	 	
mercury	 concentrations exceeded 100 cm.	 	
Sai Liang at 	Tsinghua University, Beijing and coworkers 	(2013) studied the d	rivers of 	
mercury e	missions in China from 1992 to	 2007	. Mercury emissions in China have 	
increased by	 164% during 1992	−	2007. 	They	 examine	d the underlying	 drivers and their 	
contributions to the change of mercury	 emissions. Results show that changes in per 	
capita GDP and	 GDP composition led to increased emissions which offset the	 reduction 	
of emissions made possible by tech	nology	-induced	 decrease of mercury emissions 	
intensity and changes in final	 demand mix. In particular, changes in final demand mix 	
caused	 decreasing mercury emissions from 1992 to 2002 and	 increasing emissions from 	
2002 to 2007. Formation of fixed	 capital 	was the dominant driver behind the increase of 	
mercury emissions, followed by the increasing urban population and net	 exports. 	The 	
authors claim that such a	 systems	-based examination of socioeconomic drivers for 	
China’s mercury emission increase is critica	l for emission	 control by guiding policy	-	
making and targets of technology	 development.	 	
Quan	-Ying Cai at 	the 	Agricultural University,	 Guangzhou and coworkers (2013) studied 	
the heavy metal concentrations of soil and	 dust samples from roadside, residential 	
areas, parks,	 campus sport grounds, and commercial sites in Guangzhou, South China.	 	
Elevated 	heavy metal	 concentrations were found in urban soils	 and dusts in Guangzhou, 	
especially for Cd, Pb, and	 Zn. Mean	 concentrations in urban dusts were	 remarkably 	
high	er compared to those in urban soils.	 Individual 	heavy metals	 behaved in a different 	
way in roadsides,	 residential areas, parks, and sport grounds.	 Eighty	-nine percent of 	
park soil and all residential area	 soils were classified as lowly	–moderately polluted;	 86 	
% of roadside soils and 91 % of sport ground soils	 exhibited a moderate integrated 	
pollution index	, while all dusts were classified	 as highly polluted.	 	
Changsheng	 Qu et al. (2012) presented 	a procedure for health risk assessment of heavy	 	
metal polluti	on	 based on	 a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency model and using 	
Monte Carlo simulation	 techniques	. A case study was conducted in the Qixia lead and 	
zinc mining area	 in 	Jiangsu province	. Based on the magnitude of heavy metal 	
contamination in the mine fac	tory, vicinal	 Qixia scenic site and village, the potential 	
health risk calculated for a lifetime of	 exposure (through ingestion and dermal contact) 	
was determined as the cumulative	 carcinogenic and non	-carcinogenic risk for workers, 	
tourists, and local res	idents	 (including children and adults), respectively. The risk

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assessment indicated that	 the carcinogenic risk is not significant. However, Pb poses a 	
significant cumulative	 non	-carcinogenic risk, which tends to be serious for workers. 	
Additionally, local	 children are more vulnerable than adults to the risks associated with 	
heavy metal	 contamination. Accordingly, risk alleviation and preventive measures 	
should be	 taken, especially for children and workers.	 	
4 	Unconventional natural gas 	– an emerging problem?	 	
The use of unconventional gas, in particular shale gas will according to some analysts 
cause an energy revolution. It seems relevant to mention this here since there are 
ongoing projects both in Jiangsu and Guizhou provinces (Gao, 2012; Zhao et al., 2013)	. 	
Gao (2012) writes that although various sources have estimated that China has one of 
the largest technically recoverable unconventional gas resource bases in the world, very 
little exploration has been carried out to confirm its detailed characteristic	s and 	
productivity capacity. It should therefore be emphasized that, despite a potentially 
larger resource base, estimates of how much can be produced and at what cost level may 
change significantly when further assessments are conducted because the 
unconv	entional gas industry, and especially the shale gas sector, is still in its infancy. 	 	
Gao also writes that environmental challenges to unconventional gas have so far not 
been considered a significant issue in China in contrast to European countries which 
have raised concerns about the potential damage from intensive drilling and fracturing.	 	
Problems and questions related to unconventional gas production are numerous. 
Yunhua 	Chang et al. (2012) write that China is now embarking	 upon substantial 	
development	 of shale gas extraction but the	 question of major public concern is whether 	
or not the Chinese	 government will try to learn from the US experience not only	 to 	
bene	fit from the new engineering techniques but also to	 minimize the negative impacts 	
of this te	chnology on environmental	 and human health. 	Further, they write that m	ore 	
data have recently	 emerged in North America: (i) fracturing requires tens of	 million 	
liters of water; and the threat of associated damage such	 as water pollution and 	
earthquakes has 	become clearer; (ii)	 using Life Cycle Assessment, leakage of methane 	
gas from the	 fracking process has been estimated to form a greater carbon	 footprint 	
than coal or conventional natural gas in some	 studies; (iii) shale gas extraction has 	
negatively affect	ed local	 air quality in some regions as a result of the release of nitrogen	 	
oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), two air	 pollutants with significant 	
respiratory and cardiac health	 effects.	 	
Especially the methane leakage is causing a heated 	debate. 	In a very recent paper by 	
LaFranci et al., (2013) describe a more sophisticated method to estimate the leakages 
than commonly used. They claim that some of the earlier estimates are considerable 
overestimates. In a case study they estimated the lea	kage to 1.7 % of the total natural 	
gas production in the region.	 	
Brian G. Rahm et and cowo	rkers 	(2013) suggest	ed	 that nations, states, and	 regulatory 	
agencies	 facing new	, unconventional shale development recognize that pace and scale of 	
well drilling lead	s to	 commensurate wastewater management challenges. 	They	 also 	
suggest 	nations, states, and	 regulatory agencies implement wastewater	 reporting and 	
tracking systems, articulate a policy for adapting management to evolving data and

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development patterns, asses	s local and regional wastewater treatment infrastructure in 	
terms of capacity	 and capability, promote well	-regulated on	-site treatment technologies, 	
and review and update wastewater	 management regulations and policies.	 	
It should also be noted that there i	s an ongoing discussion about the resources and 	
economy of producing unconventional gas. Thus Hughes (2013) writes that the general 
predictions are wildly optimistic given the fundamentals of producing these 
hydrocarbons.

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Vista Anal	ysis AS	 	25	 	
 
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Appendix 1.	 Some recent articles on environmental problems 	
in China in blogs and mass media.	 	
 
Politics of pollution: China's oil giants take a choke	-hold on power	 	
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/02/us	-china	-pollution	-oilcompanies	-	
idUSBRE9110F620130202	 	
 
Mainland editorial declares war on water pollution	 	
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1150179/mainland	-editorial	-declares	-war	-	
water	-pollution	 	
 
Worse Than Poisoned Water: Dwindling Water, in China’s North	 	
http://rendezvous.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/05/worse	-than	-poisoned	-water	-	
dwindling	-water	-in	-chinas	-north	-and	-west/	 	
 
Chinese struggle through 'airpocalyps	e' smog	 	
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/16/chinese	-struggle	-through	-	
airpocalypse	-smog	 	
 
China's environment ministry an "utter disappointment"	 	
http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/5788	-China	-s-environment	-ministry	-an-utter	-	
disappointment	- 	
 
Shanghai’s dead pig	 story stretches back upstream	 	
http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/5820	-Shanghai	-s-dead	-pig	-	
story	-stretches	-back	-upstr	eam	 	
 
Air pollution tops the agenda at China's parliament	 	
http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/5791	-Air	-pollution	-top	s-	
the	-agenda	-at	-China	-s-parliament

Baseline survey of literature on environmental risk	 	
Vista Analysis AS	 	30	 	
In China, Breathing Becomes a Childhood Risk	 	
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/23/world/asia/pollution	-is-radically	-	
changing	-childhood	-in	-chinas	-	
cities.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20130423	 	
 
 	
 
Illustration from 
chinadialogue.

Baseline survey of literature on environmental risk	 	
Vista Anal	ysis AS	 	31	 	
 
Appendix 2.	 The Awareness and Preparedness f or 	
Emergencies at Local Level (APELL) programme and 
Responsible Production Approach	 	
 
The APELL programme 	was developed under the auspices of 	United Nations 	
Environment Programme	 (UNEP) in 1986 following various industrial a	ccidents that 	
harmed surrounding communities and the environment. The APELL Handbook was 
written to assist decision	-makers and technical personnel in improving community 	
awareness of industrial hazards and in preparing response plans for chemical accidents	. 	
…..Although the initial focus of the APELL programme was on chemical hazards, the 
methods and concepts used are also	 applicable to natural hazards. The programme’s 	
emphasis on integrated hazard and risk assessment and emergency planning is suitable 
for t	he development of comprehensive emergency plans that consider both industrial 	
and natural risks, as well as some aspects of the interaction between the two.	 	
As a part of the program a 	UNEP APELL Multi	-Hazard Training Kit For Local Authorities 	- 	
For Commun	ity Vulnerability Reduction, Prevention, and Preparedness	 has been 	
developed.	 The Training Kit shall assist local authorities in increasing their 	
preparedness and reducing their vulnerability in the face of natural and industrial 
disasters. It is based o	n UNEP’s APELL process, which has been promoted in many 	
communities around the world to increase preparedness for industrial accidents. It 
consists of 15 modules among them are: 	Multi	-Hazard Matrix for Self Assessment, Risk 	
Analysis, Emergency Planning, Ri	sk Communication, Fixed Industrial Installations, 	
Transportation of Hazardous Materials, and Small and Medium Sized Enterprises	. 	
Assessment of the current situation	 	
Among the first steps in the APELL process is the collection	 of information and data 	
regar	ding current hazards and the	 level of community preparedness for emergencies. 	
This	 information can be used to identify strengths, abilities, and	 aspects of emergency 	
preparedness that can be improved.	 	
Potentially valuable information includes:	 	
• Identific	ation	 	
of agencies with a potential role to play in emergency	 planning and response	 	
• Identification	 	
of hazards that could produce an emergency situation	 	
• Th	e current state	 	
of community planning and coordination for emergency	 preparedness

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Vista Analysis AS	 	32	 	
• Identification	 	
of existing points of contact and responsibilities of stakeholders	 in case of an emergency	 	
• List	 	
of available equipment and materials to be used in an	 emergency	 	
• Th	e existing organizational structure	 	
for handling emergencies	 	
• Th	e presence or absence	 	
of 	specialized emergency response teams for hazardous	 materials releases	 	
• Th	e current state	 	
of the emergency transportation network, including evacuation	 	
routes and access roads	 	
• Procedures	 	
for protecting citizens in emergencies (i.e., asking them to	 remain	 indoors, respond to 	
emergency sirens in a specific	 fashion, take shelter is designated buildings, etc.)	 	
• E	stablishment	 	
of a mechanism to enable responders to exchange information	 during emergencies	 	
It should be noted that the list above is for indicativ	e purposes only, and not all of this 	
information will be available	 or applicable for a given community. The objective of this	 	
step is only to develop a good idea of what resources do	 or do not exist within the 	
community, and does not imply	 that all the inf	ormation above is required to begin 	
creation	 of a plan	 	
 
Ten	 Step Process for Improving	 Emergency Prepar	edness	 	
After the existing information has been gathered and reviewed,	 local authorities and the 	
Co	- ordinating Group should have a	 qualitative understan	ding of the community’s ability 	
to deal	 with an emergency. At this point, the following 10	-step process	 can be used to 	
increase emergency preparedness.	 	
 	
1. Identify emergency response participants and establish	 roles, resources and 	
concerns	 	
2. Evaluate risks and	 hazards that may result in an emergency situation	 	
3. Have participants review existing emergency plans,	 identify weaknesses

Baseline survey of literature on environmental risk	 	
Vista Anal	ysis AS	 	33	 	
4. Identify response tasks not covered by existing plans	 	
5. Match tasks to resources available from identified participants	 	
6. Make changes nec	essary to improve existing plans and integrate into overall 	
emergency plan and gain agreement 	 	
7. Commit integrated plan to writing, obtain local government approvals	 	
8. Educate participating groups about the integrated plan and ensure all emergency 
responders 	are trained	 	
9. Establish procedures for periodic testing, review and updating of plan	 	
10.	 Educate general community about the integrated plan	 	
 
http://www.unep.fr/scp/publications/detail	s.asp?id=DTI/1289/PA	 	
http://www.unep.fr/shared/publications/pdf/DTIx1289xPA	-APELLMulti	-	
HazardTrainingKit.pdf	 	
A Framework for Chemical Hazard Manageme	nt for Small and Medium Sized 	
Enterprises	. Responsible	 production	 handbook	, see	 	
http://www.unep.org/resourceefficiency/Portals/2414	7/scp/sp/saferprod/pdf/	
Responsible_Production_Brochure.pdf

Baseline survey of literature on environmental risk	 	
Vista Analysis AS	 	34	 	
 
5 	Appendix 3. 	Assessing results of Chinese Environmental 	
policy	 	
In a	 recent report Jing Wu at Institute of Real Estate Studies, Tsinghua University	, and 	
coworkers	 analyze i	ncentives and 	outcomes	 of: China’s environmental policy.	 	
In the abstract they write that data from 2000 to 2009 show that spending on 
environmental infrastructure has visible positive environmental impact. However, city 
spending is strongly tilted towards transportation	 infrastructure. Investment in 	
transportation infrastructure correlates strongly with both real GDP growth, a measure 
of tangible economic growth relevant to city	-level Party and government cadres’ 	
promotion odds, and with land prices, which affect city go	vernments’ revenues from 	
land lease sales. In contrast, city governments’ spending on environmental 
improvements is at best uncorrelated	3 with cadres’ promotion odds, and is uncorrelated 	
with local GDP growth and land prices. These findings suggest that, w	ere environmental 	
quality explicitly linked to a cadre’s chance of promotion, or were environmental quality 
to affect land prices substantially, city	-level public investment in environmental 	
improvement would rise.	 	
Wu, J., Deng. Y., Huang, J., Morck, R., 	and Yeung, B., 	2013. Incentives and outcomes: 	
China’s environmental policy. 	National Bureau of Economic Research. Cambridge, MA 	
02138, USA.	 http://www.nber.org/papers/w18754	 	
 
 
 
 
 	 	 	
3 In fact the corre	lation is significantly negative.

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Author
Marit Vågdal
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2013-09-20T13:13:27+02:00
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