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VISTA ANALYSE
News
Publications
Employees
Orvika Rosnes
CEO
Dag Morten Dalen
Chairman of the board
Haakon Vennemo
Partner
Ingeborg Rasmussen
Partner
Michael Hoel
Partner
Tor Homleid
Partner
John Magne Skjelvik
Partner
Steinar Strøm
Partner
Sidsel Sverdrup
Partner
Eivind Tandberg
Partner
Hanne Toftdahl
Partner
Åsmund Sunde Valseth
Partner
Leonid Andreev
Eivind Bjørkås
Anita Einarsdottir
Stine Mari Godeseth
Leif Grandum
Andreas Stranden Hoel-Holt
Mari Brekke Holden
Haakon Riekeles
Herman Ringdal
Kristian Roksvaag
Andreas Skulstad
Veronica Strøm
Martin Ørbeck
Øyvind Rørslett
Philip Swanson
Research
About
History
Master's thesis
Quality Control
Contact
Map
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Integrated Economic and Environmental Planning: Introduction and international experiences
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Lectures
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n/a
Year
2013
Author(s)
Rasmus Reinvang
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Integrated Economic and Environmental Planning: Introduction and international experiences 综 经济环 C 规 / H 简 Z\ 际经验 By Rasmus Reinvang, Mag. Art. ( PhD ), Vista Analysis The 2013 Annual Conference for Environmental Planning in China Taiyuan, China, 16.-17. August 2013. 1. Background: Strengthening Environmental Planning (2009-12) 2. Introduction to key tools: CBA, SEA, MSG-6 3. Example of international experience: Hydropower 4. Resources g* ; 5. Next step: Strengthening environmental risk management (2013-15) Content 50[d 绍 HCBA F SEA F MSG-6 \ 际经验 L[ H 电资 ; * H 5˜ 环 C 规 /H 2009-2012 H WMId8 H 5˜ 环 C 风险 '#.H 2013-2015 H Norwegian project partners / >8 ! Vista Analysis, a research institute and consultancy on economics, environmental economy and policy. ! CICERO, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo ! > 远 (%'2d H\ 际 Z 环 C%'2p H 陆 Vista Analysis’ representative in Taiyuan: ! Rasmus Reinvang, PhD , senior researcher . ! 12 years experience with environment and sustainable development policy work , in Scandinavia, the EU, China, India. ! Lecturer at Copenhagen University ( Denmark ), University of Gdansk (Poland ), BI Norwegian Business School (Norway) ! Rasmus ~"j F p\3 拥 w 12 环 CZ 续发 d8 经验 ! 时 y;*!? F < 兰 A# F BI >_7T 讲师 www.vista-analyse.no An example of decoupling : Air pollution in Norway 1980 - 2000 +: 钩 H > 污 H 1980-2000 H ! Project: ” Improving the effectiveness of environmental 5-Year Plans in China” (2009-2012) – Phase I ! Partners in China: p8 ! MEP Planning Division, CAEP H环 4 规财 H >CAEP H ! Pilot provinces: Jiangsu, Hubei, Guizhou, Yunnan ! 试 !l%, H 苏 F F 贵 ^ F ! ! Goal: To assist in improving environmental planning in China ! Main outputs: z0[ 产 ! Documentation of Chinese and International best practise in Environmental Planning ! Guidebook in the use of Cost -Benefit Analysis (CBA) and Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEA) ! Training of EPB staff from pilot provinces ! Policy recommendations ! Final seminar and publication of book in Chinese (2012) Phase I project (2009-2012) M 项 % H 2009-2012 H : f9 环 C 护 规 /$ 执 /@ Recommendations of Phase I M 项 % 议结论 ! Enhance coordination and strengthen horizontal and vertical collaboration of provincial planning departments in the preparation stage of 5-Year Plans. >>>> > 5˜ %, 级规 /4 6í $ 协 8 ! Prioritize key points and weak links and improve competence at the provincial level 优 5˜ 5!l-E 环节 H f9%, 级 + ! Strengthen planning research method and inventory ! Strengthen technical training, short -term and long-term ! Emphasize the importance of data collection and lay a foundation for establishing the planning work platform, incl. ! Establish an economic and environmental data center ! Accelerate the research on pollution emission inventory and prediction 5 视 X#27 H 为环 C 规 / 础 ! Innovate policy measures and strenghten public participation in planning research and preparation process , incl . ! Increase participation of enterprises and the public in planning preparation >>>> >;' 创 H 5˜ 规 / 编 D 过 &p$ gZ 1. Background : Strengthening Environmental Planning (2009-12) 2. Introduction to key tools: CBA, SEA, MSG-6 3. Example of international experience : Hydropower 4. Resources 5. Next step : Strengthening environmental risk management (2013-15) www.vista-analyse.no Content 50[d 绍 HCBA F SEA F MSG-6 Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) ! Pioneered in the USA since the1980 ’s *>\" Q# ! Since 1981 mandatory use of CBA to assess new policy initiatives and programs. ! Also requiring CBA to evaluate performance of existing policies ! Also common in other Western countries 0Y\4"Q# ! Widespread use for transportation projects 3 领 7 ! New roads, railway lines, airports etc. ! Well suited to assess environmental impacts, time savings etc. ! Increasingly used for environmental policies and projects ! Eg . Waste treatment projects 环 C;' 项 % p 应 #3 渐 T ! Are relied on by decision makers j 'D*Q# ! But they also rely on other inputs in the decision making process CBA 费 #@%( ! A formal analysis of the impacts of a project, regulation, programme, plan or policy 对 项 % F 2 规 F 规 /H;'$G's$( ! Designed to evaluate whether advantages (“benefits”) are greater than the disadvantages (“costs”) >>> ># 评 项 % 优势 H@% H 势 H费 # H ! Used to choose among several projects with benefits larger than costs >>> >#&@% > B$L 选 Key questions answered in a CBA CBA 0 $ 键问题 ! What are the available projects for solving the problem? 0 问题 $# 项 % w. H ! Often many alternative projects ! Should project X be undertaken at all? 项 % X 应 \ 执 / H ! Only if benefits > costs ! What is the optimal scale of the project? 项 % 执 /$q 优 { H ! Can inform about the desirable level of environmental quality ! When should the project be implemented? 项 % \1 时实 H CBA - one of several similar tools CBA – %&d M ! Cost Effectiveness Analysis HBw@( H: a systematic mapping of the costs of potential projects that could reach the same goal ! The goal is given - choose the cheapest project ! Cost Impact Analysis HBs$( H: a systematic mapping of the costs of potential actions, but where the effects of each action are not equal ! Cannot necessary choose the action with lowest costs ! Cost Benefit Analysis H费 #@%( H: a systematic mapping of costs and benefits of potential projects ! Valuate these in monetary terms as far as possible ! Choose the project with the largest cost/benefit ratio Steps in a CBA I 骤 1. Identify relevant projects %%& 项 % 1. Describe a reference scenario e3g!_ 2. Identify and estimate relevant physical impacts of each project %%& s$ 3. Evaluate physical impacts using monetary terms when possible 货币 评 4. Compare benefits and costs for each project 1. 较 2%B 5. Conduct a sensitivity analysis 1. D( 6. Recommend a project or projects 1. N, 执 / 项 % Some CBA advantages 优势 ! Facilitate stakeholders in systematically identifying, discussing, quantifying and comparing the trade-offs of proposed projects 协 <%%& 识 Jò 较 YL ! Allow policy makers to unitize (in RMB) and compare otherwise wide-ranging benefits and costs which accrue to various group 7 B@% 统 M 较 ! Allow policy makers to compare and prioritize competing uses of public funds 优 资 5 Q# ! Inform policy makers in formulating economically sensible and defendable public investment programs 为 资项 % fj '- Some potential CBA disadvantages / ~ 势 > ! Requires a lot of data and investigation X#Z 调查 7 ! What would be the impacts of the project? ! How uncertain are they? ! What would it cost to implement the project? ! How to value the impacts? 1 货币 s$ H ! Several methods exist, but they could be time consuming and require special skills ! CBA is mostly relevant for larger public projects with potentially big impacts z0[ 应 # w ~gs$$ 项 % Winners and losers from a project ! Traditionally, CBA does not include analysis of distributional effects ! But important for policy makers to see who gains and who pays ! Usually not everyone benefits from a project… ! … and someone may lose ! Those who benefit are not necessary those who pay ! Insight in stakeholder positions could be crucial to ensure implementation of a project ! A first step would be to identify the effects on various groups and provide detailed information about them ! Then eventually the issue of equity could be considered in the CBA by assigning implicit and explicit distributional weights to calculate net benefits received by individuals For policy makers… ;'D* … " How do the B/C ratios compare? (Ranking of projects) 项 % B/C < " Is the preferred project economically viable? N, 项 % 经济 / H " How confident are we in our estimates? 评 8 H ! Assumptions? All benefits and costs? Robustness? ! Do those that are affected agree with our results – or would they prioritize differently? " Do we have or can we get the financing? 资 5 ; H ! Would one project be more difficult than the other? ! Is the population willing and able to pay for all or part? " Are the conditions in place for the given project in the specific place? 项 % #. H ! Construction risks? ! Legal, institutional and administrative frameworks in place? Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) 战 $ 环 C 评 ! The purpose of the SEA is to systematically evaluate environmental impacts of a plan/ programme designed for motivating a collection of projects – before the plan/ programme is started up ! SEA can be seen as an extension of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), moving from individual projects to policies , plans and programs ! An important purpose of the SEA is to bring forward the indirect impacts of projects . Often, the aggregate impact of many projects is not found by adding the impact of each project. # SEA % 标 H( 统评 规 /$ 环 Cs$ ! The EU directive 2001/42/EC makes SEA mandatory in the EU for plans/ programmes that are prepared for agriculture , forestry , fisheries , energy , industry , transport, waste /water management, telecommunications , tourism , town & country planning or land use . # EU H 2001/42/EC H规 l 农业 F 业 F 渔业 ' 领 $ 规 / 须 SEA ! SEAs can be conducted in different ways . Some of these ”ways ” have their own name , such as ”Country Environmental Assessment ” or ”Regional Environmental Assessment ”. The steps of SEA / I 骤 1. Screening: Is an SEA necessary? 筛选 Hw0[ 进 / SEA H 2. Scoping: Set objective and scope of the SEA %,r 围 * 3. Describe the baseline or reference scenario g!_ 4. Identify and assess impacts of plans/programs 识 Jò Z 评 s$ - Incl . assessing main alternatives and their impacts 5. Environmental reporting 环 C 报 - Describe environmental impacts , mitigation and monitoring options 6. Consultation and participation 询 ZgZ 7. Monitoring of the env . impact of the plan/program 监测 Why conduct an SEA? / 0[ ! SEA is a means to safeguard environmental assets and promote sustainable development # SEA 7 环 C 财 ) F 进 续发 ! It can improve decision-making by ! Providing environmental-based evidence to support informed decisions ! Preventing costly mistakes ! Facilitate public engagement in decision making ! Highlighting broad environmental and social issues , giving a framework for specific EIA-studies ! Facilitating transboundary cooperation # '- www.vista-analyse.no Environmental economic model in Norway: MSG 6 > 环 C 经济 -MSG 6 ! MSG 6 = Multisectoral Growth Model, version 6 4 6í T 长 ! Belongs to a model family called Computable General Equilibrium models, CGE- models M+/ ! Long-term economic and environmental forecasts, recognizing 长 经济 Z 环 C 预测 ! that long-term economic development is shaped by investment , labour supply and technology ! That long-term industry composition is also shaped by prices and income ! Covers 60 commodities and 40 industries / 40 m/ 业 $ 60 &_ ! Covers emissions to air / % 污 <: Production per industry / / 业 # 产 Meets household demand 7 www.vista-analyse.no MSG-6 p 污 l z0[ ; Application in Norway / > 应 # ! Economic scenarios started in 1960s / 1960 经济 _ 应 # ! First environmental scenarios in 1973 / 1973 环 C_ 应 # ! Now routine to publish scenarios for emissions to air 污 <:_$ 规 2 ¼% higher annual productivity growth ¼% # 产 T 长 ¼% higher energy productivity growth ¼% + ;# 产 T 长 20% higher world market price oil w 场 AV 20% 150,000 more People T 长 150,000 Impacts on greenhouse gas emissions 2020, mill tons. 2020 年 对 温室气体排放的影响 (百万吨 ) Applications in Norway (examples) > 应 #HL[ H ! Costs of carbon taxation &&B ! Costs and benefits of environmental tax reform 环 C&58 B@% ! Costs and benefits of quotas versus carbon taxes 4 额 >vs. &&$B@% ! Environment and trade: Carbon leakage 环 CZ 贸 H&<: ! Analyses exploring the links between technology policy, innovation activity and environmental emissions 术 ;' F 创 环 C 污 <:%& ( ! Analyses that describe damages of emissions 污 损 ( Institutional coordination / 4 6í 协调 ! Ministry of Finance is responsible for economic policy, economic growth and sustainable development ! Uses models actively in economic planning and economic policy development # 财 ;4 – 经济 ;' F 经济 T 长 续发 ! Ministry of Environment is responsible for environmental policy, environmental planning and environmental outcomes ! Use models to understand future environmental challenges and for environmental planning # 环 C4 >– 环 C;' F 环 C 规 / 环 C 产 Institutional cooperation / 4 6í 8 ! Economic environmental policy is formulated jointly , with Ministry of Finance having the last word # 财 ;4 w 5· H 经济环 C;' 联 发 x ! Statistics Norway maintains and improves the models , maintains databases and conduct research- based analyses. ! Accepted as an impartial referee G ! Transparency is essential 3 # > 统计 对 进 /'#.5 进 H 维护 X# 库 H %'2 1. Background : Strengthening Environmental Planning (2009-12) 2. Introduction to key tools : CBA, SEA, MSG-6 3. Example of international experience: Hydropower 4. Resources 5. Next step : Strengthening environmental risk management (2013-15) www.vista-analyse.no Content / \ 际经验 L[ H 电资 ; Norway is full of waterfalls / !x\ - > ! Hydropower has been used for centuries ! The first electric plant was built 1877 ! q$ 电 'p -1877 ! Today 99% of electric power in Norway is hydro ! > 99% $ 电 'p 为 电 'p Conflicts / ': ! Over time, the level of conflict over hydropower projects became quite high ! 针对 电项 % $%%*%T ! Even leading to a hunger strike outside the Norwegian Parliament ! #+ 导 +~> 议 绝 8 Master Plan for Hydro Resources 资 ; 总 / 规 / ! Developed from 1981 to 1984 / 编 D 1981-1984 ! Follow up reports in 1986 and later ! Covered 540 potential hydropower projects ! Often several per physical location # 0]% 540 m ~ 电项 % ! Total 40 TWh development potential ! Compared to about 100 TWh installed per 1980 and 20 TWh protected # 约 40 亿 # 时发 + www.vista-analyse.no Purpose of Master Plan / 总 / 规 /% 标 ! To present to the parliament a proposal for a prioritised listing of hydropower projects for subsequent consideration for licensing. # 为议 fj 续 电项 % 发 优 单 ! Priority should be given to the projects that were most favorable from both an economic and an environmental viewpoint. # 经济 Z 环 C$0* 虑优 项 % www.vista-analyse.no How it got there . The process. gB 过 & … ! Led by the Ministry of Environment ! In cooperation with the Ministry of Energy and the Water Resources Board (similar to MWR China) and others # 环 4 牵头 H Z+ ;4<4'8 ! One expert group per impact category ! National level ! County level ! A great number of people and stakeholders involved! # %&\$ 员 /<%%& gZ G www.vista-analyse.no Methodology at plan level 规 /2 ! Key task is to compare economic cost # 键 务 H 较经济 B ! And environmental+social non-monetary benefits # Z 环 C + &k 8 货币 2% ! Six cost classes were defined ! 义 &B 7 ! What about benefits ? ! —— 2% H www.vista-analyse.no 16 benefit categories / 2% 7Jò ! Hydropower potential 电 + ! Nature conservation (geology, botany, landscape, zoology) 资 ; 护 ! Outdoor recreation (tourism related) 户 娱乐 ! Fish and wildlife – (hunting and fishing) 渔业 5# 动 "@ ! Water supply j ! Water quality (pollution) 质 H污 H ! Cultural heritage e 遗产 ! Agriculture and forestry 农业 业 ! Reindeer husbandry (specific for the laps – indigenous people) 驯 ; 驯 ! Flood protection 75e ! Erosion control 75uv ! Transportation 3 ! Ice 冻 ! Water temperature ! Climate ! Regional Economy 经济 Aggregation of impacts and classification s$( 计 ( 7 ! Stakeholders have different opinions about what is important: Give and take process <%%& $Y 见 ! Preliminary aggregate score based on 285 site reports: Adjusted and synchronised at central level by comparing projects ! t( H p 汇总 ! Finally the 540 projects were classified into 3 categories: ! Class I: Considered for licence immediately ! Class II: Can be used for hydro power or other purposes ! Class III: Should be protected # 540 m 项 % ( 为 3 7 H # 'g6 许 H# 电 H % $ H/ 护 End result of Master Plan 总 / 规 / 结 … www.vista-analyse.no 21 24,2 0,7 6,1 9,8 3,8 105,6 Master2Plan2for2Water2Resources2