Investments on the Norwegian Continental Shelf – An Empirical Analysis

Oslo, 28.11.2018

Steinar Strøm and Bjørnar Andreas Kvinge of Vista Analyse has together with Pernille Parmer, Helge Sandvig Thorsen og Inger Ubbe published an article in CESifo. The article is an empirical analysis of investments on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The article extends on a project that Vista Analyse completed on behalf of the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

In this article we analyze which factors that have influenced investments on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. We have utilized data for all oil and gas fields from 1970 to 2016. We find a strong and statistically significant effect of lagged oil prices on investments. The estimated model performs very well compared to actual data, except for the years 2012-2015. This was a period with large oil price fluctuations, where investments in the periods when the price peaked may have been limited by supply-side capacity restrictions.

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