The Oslo case: Handling environmental risk with urban planning

Category	Lectures
Sub-Categories	n/a
Year	2014
Author(s)	Rasmus Reinvang
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The Oslo case: Handling 	environmental	 risk 	with	 urban planning	 	
 Rasmus Reinvang, Mag. Art. (	PhD	), Vista Analysis 	Workshop Sino-Norwegian 	project	 ”Planning for 	cost-effective	 environmental	 risk 	reduction	” 	Beijing, 18-19 November 2014

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 Norway'Sweden	'	Germany'Oslo'Poland	'

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Content	 	
 1.	 	Overview	: Oslo, 	the	 capital	 of	 Norway 	2.	 	1850-1980: 	Industrialization	 and 	environmental	 crisis	 	3.	 	1980-today: 	Redevelopment	 and 	the	 green city 	4.	 	Remaining	 challenges	 and 	future	 plans

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Oslo 	today	 	
• 	Oslo 	municipality	: 640 000 pop. 	• 	Oslo Metropolitan Area: 1 500 000 pop. 	• 	The 	economic	 and 	governmental	 centre	 of	 Norway 	• 	A 	hub	 of	 Norwegian trade, banking, 	industry	 and shipping. 	• 	An 	important	 European 	centre	 for maritime 	industries	 and trade 	(shipping 	companies	, 	shipbrokers	, maritime 	insurance	 brokers). 	 • 	Oslo is 	considered	 a global city (an 	important	 node in 	the	 global 	economic	 system) and 	ranked	 ”Beta World City” (2012). 	• 	For 	reference	: Guangzhou is 	ranked	 ”Beta+ World City” (	above	 	Oslo) and Shenzhen is 	ranked	 ”Beta- World City” (	below	 Oslo).

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 • 	1850-1930: The Industrial City 	emerges	 	• 	Factories	 and 	sevenfold	 increase	 in 	population	 	• 	1930-1970: Urban Expansion and 	the	 Car	 Age 	• 	Urban 	growth	, 	housing	 shortages	, 	environmental	 crisis	 	• 	1970-1980s: 	Decline	 and 	mobilization	 	• 	Deindustrialization	, 	depopulation	, 	environmental	 crisis	 	• 	Mass 	group	 incidents	, policy 	development

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 Oslo-1840-

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1850-1930: The 	industrial	 city 	emerges	 	
• 	Initially	 based	 on	 hydropower	 from 	the	 city rivers 	• 	Sevenfold	 increase	 in 	population	 	• 	From ca. 45 000 in 1850 til 330 000 in 1925 	• 	New 	working	 class	 neighbourhoods	 around	 factories	 	• 	Slums 	 • 	Increasing	 pollution	 levels	 (air and water) 	• 	Air: 	Increasing	 reliance	 on	 coal	 and gas (	black	 fumes	) 	• 	Water: Wastewater 	mostly	 untreated	 until	 1930s; 	sludge	 is 	towed	 out	 and 	dumped	 in 	the	 fjord. 	• 	Urban 	waste	 is 	deposited	 on	 Langøya 	island	. 	• 	Drinking	 water is 	secured	 by 	municipality	 buying	 up 	surrounding	 forest	 with	 lakes; piping 	of	 water to 	the	 city

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Factories	-at-Akerselva,-ca.-1860-	Mechanical	-workshop,-1908-	Shipyard	-and-workshop,-1925-	-Municipal	-waste	-on	-the	-island	-Langøyene,-1930-	-

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 Map	-of	-Oslo-1938,-	with	-main	-industrial	-zones	-indicated	-with	-blue	-circles	.-	-

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The-Oslo-	Harbour	-(Bjørvika)-1930s,-an-	industrial	-area-	between	-the	-city-and-	the	-Rord.-In-	the	-foreground	-a-	coal	-deposit	,-in-	the	-background	-a-	shipyard	.-	-

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1930-1970: Urban 	expansion	 and 	the	 car	 	
• 	Continued	 urban 	growth	 (50%) and 	industrial	 development	 	• 	From 330 000 in 1925 to 488 000 in 1969 	• 	Large 	scale	 urban planning 	introduced	 (1929) to handle problems 	(e.g. slums, 	pollution	) and 	facilitate	 growth	. 	• 	Severe 	housing	 shortages	 (	aggravated	 by 	war	 1940-45) leads to 	building	 boom 1950s – 1970. 	• 	Power 	needs	 secured	 by 	the	 municiplaity	 investing	 in 	hydropower	 in 	far-	away	 valleys	 (	phase	 out	 of	 coal	/gas for 	energy	 production	) 	• 	Increasing	 ecological	 crisis	 	• 	Fast 	growing	 car	 trafick	 (	doubling	 1948-1959) 	increase	 air 	pollution	 levels	 	• 	Lack	 of	 wastewater and 	waste	 treatment	 kills 	off	 river 	trout	, and makes it 	a 	health	 risk to 	swim	 in rivers and 	the	 inner	 fjord 	basin	, and to 	eat	 fish	 	from 	the	 fjord. 	Landfills	 moved	 onto	 land is not 	enough	.

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 LocaTon-	of	-industry	-in-Oslo,-1946-	-

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 Polluted	-wastewater,-Oslo-(Lambertseter)-1958-	-Metal-smelTng,-Oslo-1946.--Measuring	-dust-	parTcles	-at-	the	-staTon	,-Oslo-1956.-	-Oslo-	harbour	-(Akers.-Mek.),-1961-	-

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1970-1980s: 	Decline	 and 	mobilization	 	
• 	Population	 decline	 1969-1984 	of	 almost	 10% 	• 	From 488 000 in 1969 to 448 000 in 1984 	• 	Mains 	reason	: Housing	 shortages	 and 	environmental	 problems 	• 	Environmental	 crisis	 	• 	Air 	pollution	 (SO2, NO2, PM10) 	• 	Increasing	 motor 	traffick	 congesting	 the	 city; 	pollution	, noise	 	• 	Water 	pollution	; rivers and 	the	 fjord not 	fit	 for 	use	 	• 	Increasing	 waste	 production	 (5-7%/	year	) and 	lack	 of	 land-	fill	 capacity	 	• 	The 	building	 boom 1950-1970 (urban 	development	) has 	destroyed	 urban green 	structure	 and 	traditional	 small-scale	 neighbourhoods	. Urban 	sprawl	. 	• 	Industrial 	forestry	 destroyed	 biodiversity	 and 	recreational	 values	 around	 the	 city 	• 	Environment 	on	 the	 political	 agenda 	• 	Norwegian 	Ministry	 of	 Environment 	established	 in 1972. Policy 	tools	.

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 Oslo-	harbour	-(Akers.-Mek.),-1975.-	--Slum-in-	central	-Oslo-(	Rathkesgate	),-1981.-	--The-	town	-hall-	square	,-Oslo-1970.-	-

vista&	analyse.no	-	1980s: A 	transition	 time	 	Challenges • 	Environmental	 crisis	. 	• 	Industrial 	decline	 (	shut-downs	 or 	relocation	 inland	 or 	abroad	) 	• 	Large former 	industrial	 areas 	vacant	 	• 	The ”	flight	 from 	the	 city” leads to a 	weaker	 tax	 base. 	 New 	ideas	 	• 	1982: An NGO 	launches	 a 	competition	 ”The City and 	the	 Fjord: Oslo 	towards	 year	 2000”. 	• 	Winning	 solution	 (1984): 	Develop	 former 	harbour	 areas 	into	 mixed	 	residential-shopping-	office	 areas. 	 Environmental	 policy 	development	 	• 	1986: 	Municipal	 Environment 	Commissioner	 established	 	• 	1991: First 	environmental	 policy 	strategy	 (	focus	 on	 air 	pollution	)

vista&	analyse.no	-	1990s: The 	vision	 of	 the	 ”Fjord city” 	&-”	ReconnecTng	-the	-city-and-	the	-Rord”-	-&-The-”service-	economy	-city”-	&-Developing	-harbour	-areas-for-residenTal&shopping&	oﬃce	&culture&leisure	-(like-Barcelona!)-	&-CooperaTon-	with	-private-	developers	-	&-Moving	-the	-long	-distance	-car	-traﬃc	-underground	--	&-InvesTng	-in-wastewater-	treatment	-	New$tunnel$

vista&	analyse.no	-	Improved	 planning 	A more robust 	Municipal	 Development Plan (	since	 1990s) 	- 	Provides	 ”One 	Vision	” for 	the	 development	 of	 the	 city in a 15 to 25 	year	 perspective	, 	incl	. a land-	use	 plan. 	- 	Includes	 mapping	 of	 relevant 	factors	 and trends. 	- 	Updated	 every	 4-8 	years	. 	Increasing	 refinement	. 	 Urban 	Ecology	 Programme	 (first 1998) 	- 	10-15 	year	 perspective	, 	incl	. 6 	prioritised	 areas, 	strategy	, 	actions	 	and 	indicators	. 	- 	Updated	 towards	 the	 end 	of	 each	 planning 	period

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 TransformaTon	-areas-for-	housing	:-Dark-red-	colour	-(1998)-	Former-	industrial	-areas-	along	-the	-Aker-river;-	now	-to-	become	-a`racTve	-and-green-	residenTal	-areas.-	-

vista&	analyse.no	-	A 	long	 list 	of	 measures	 (	traffick	 examples	) 	To l l 	fee	 on	 vehicles	 entering	 Oslo (	introduced	 late 1980s) 	- 	Immediate 	reduction	 of	 car	 traffick	 with	 5-10%. 	- 	Finances (+50% 	of	 revenue	) 	development	 of	 public	 transport. 	Increased	 focus	 on	 public	 transport 	- 	Subways, trams and buses: 	Increased	 frequency	 and more lines. 	- 	Increasing	 market	 share	 since	 2007. 	Biogas	 	- A 	biogas	 production	 plant 	outside	 the	 city 	produces	 methane	 (and garden 	soil	) from 	wet-organic	 waste	; 	the	 methane	 fuels	 250 city buses.

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 	”I-am-not-	making	--a-mess.-	I-am-	making	-fuel	!”-	-	(Chinese	$text	)$	-

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 New-CBD-Museums-/-Opera-Museum-Shopping-and-	residenTal	-	ResidenTal-	tbd	-	ResidenTal-(tbd	)--	Status	-	
/Status-2014-
& 	New-	residenTa	-	Oslo-	harbour	-(Sydhavna	)-

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 From-	shipyard	-and-workshop-to-art-museum,-	apartments	,-shopping-and-	leisure	-	--1975-2014-

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Oslo is 	today	 a 	leading	 sustinable	 and green city 	
2003:-Oslo-European-	Sustainable	-City-	Award	-Winner	.-	-2010,-2011,-2014:-Oslo-ﬁnalist-(top&5)-to-	become	-European-Green-Capital.-	-

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Remaining	 	env	. risk 	challenges	 	
• 	Air 	pollution	 	• 	Problems 	with	 NO	2 and PM	10	, 	especially	 in 	winter	. 	• 	Sources: 	Car	 emissions	 (diesel), 	studded	 tires, 	heating	 with	 wood	. 	 • 	Oslo 	harbour	 	• 	A major 	harbour	 handling 	dangerous	 goods	, 	close	 to 	central	 Oslo 	• 	Sustainable	 growth	 	• 	Oslo is 	one	 of	 the	 fastest 	growing	 cities	 in 	Euope	 (2% per 	year	) 	• 	Estimated	 Oslo Metropolitan Area pop. 2030: 2 million

vista&	analyse.no	-	Oslo 	towards	 2030 	
DensiﬁcaTon	-in-nodes-	with	-public	-	transport-is-to-	ensure	-green-and-	low&	carbon	-development	-of	-the	-city.-	--Remaining	-	industrial	-areas-	--

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Definition 	of	 ”	increased	 risk” 	site	: 	 - 	A 	site	 with	 several	 risk 	factors	/ 	activites	 	- 	A 	site	 with	 potential	 for ”domino 	effects	” 	- 	A 	site	 where	 consequenses	 for 	people	 located	 around	 the	 	area 	may	 be severe. 	- 	A 	site	 where	 the	 total risk is 	higher	 than	 the	 sum 	of	 the	 risk 	from 	individual	 activites	. 	
Oslo harbour - an ”increased risk site”

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& 	Norway’s	-largest	-container-	harbour	,-receives	-40%-	of	-all-	imported	-fuel	.-	& 	Receives	-and-stores-all-	aviaTon	-fuel	-for-Oslo-InternaTonal-Airport.-	& 	Fuel	-is-	transported	-from-	the	-harbour	-on	-petrol	-tankers-and-	freight	-trains	-	& 	Located	-3-km-from-	the	-	city-	centre	.-	--& 	ResidenTal-	development	-adjacent	-	to-	the	-harbour	-	-

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DSB’s	 independent	 assessment	 	
In Norway, DSB (	the	 Directorate	 for 	Civil	 Protection	) is 	responsible	 for 	civil	 protection	, 	covering	 national	, regional and 	local	 preparedness	 and 	emergency	 planning, fire and 	electrical	 safety	, 	safety	 in handling and 	transport 	of	 hazardous	 substances	. 	- 	DSB reports to 	the	 Ministry	 of	 Justice	 and Public Security. 	 DSB 	published	 an 	independent	 risk 	assessment	 of	 Oslo 	harbour	 	(Sydhavna	), in 	February	 2014. 	- 	Based	 on	 publicly	 available	 data and data 	requested	 from 	involved	 parties	. 	- 	Based	 on	 interviews	 and 	meetings	 with	 involved	 parties	. 	- 	Based	 in in-	depth	 investigations	 into	 certain	 topics

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DSB’s	 findings	 (	selected	) 	
• 	Many	 involved	 parties	 and different types 	of	 activities	 make 	coordination	 a 	challenge	. 	• 	Extensive	 information	 flows	, but	 not 	filtered	 to 	ensure	 that	 the	 right person 	will	 	have 	the	 right 	information	 in case 	of	 an 	emergency	. 	• 	Different risk management systems 	among	 different operators; 	need	 for 	better	 	coordination	. 	• 	Many	 different risk 	assessments	 made	 for different 	activities	 (made	 when	 	permission	 was	 sought	), 	but	 lack	 of	 a risk 	assessment	 looking	 at 	the	 totality	. 	• 	Lack	 of	 a system for 	continous	 risk 	assessment	 	• 	When	 assumptions	 for a risk 	assessment	 changes	, a 	new	 risk 	assessment	 is not 	automatically	 carried	 out

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Risk 	factors	 	
From 	the	 anonymous	 survey 	conducted	 with	 harbour	 operators 	- 	85% 	considered	 the	 ship-trafick	 risky	 ”to 	some	 extent	” 	- 	69% 	considered	 the	 car	 traffick	 risky	 ”to a 	significant	 extent	 (31%) or ”to 	some	 extent	” (38%) 	- 	45% 	considered	 container 	operations	 risky	 ”to 	some	 extent	”

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Risk scenario 
A 	ship	 transporting	 fuel	 collides	 with	 another	 ship	 or 	runs 	aground	 by Hovedøya/Bleikøya 	islands	. This 	results	 in a 	fuel	 leak	 which	 is 	ignited	 and 	begins	 	drifting	 towards	 central	 Oslo. Southern 	wind	 	direction	, 2 m/s. 	The 	map	 shows 	dispersal	 of	 fumes	. 	- 	Red 	colour	: Exposure	 for +1h 	gives	 life-	threatening	 health	 effects	. 	- 	Blue 	colour	: Exposure	 for +1h 	gives	 temporary	 	negative 	health	 effects	. 	The-scenario-is-	based	-on	-an-	incident	-in-New-York-	harbour	,-1973.-	-

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Recommendations	 and 	follow	-up 	
• 	Stronger	 involvement	 of	 the	 municipality	 to 	ensure	 overall risk management. 	• 	Improved	 communication	 and 	coordination	 between	 ”	external	” stakeholders; 	municipality	, 	harbour	 authorities	, relevant 	ministries	 etc. 	• 	Improved	 communication	 and 	coordination	 between	 ”	internal	” stakeholders 	at 	the	 site	. 	 • 	HarbourEx15 (April 2015): A full-	scale	 emergency	 exercise	 	• 	A 	serious	 accident	 scenario is 	played	 out	 	• 	All 	emergency	 response	 agencies	 respond	 as in-real-	life	 	• 	The 	response	 is 	documented	 and 	evaluated	 to 	improve	 response	 	• 	EU support and 	international	 participation

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 Contact	:-rasmus@vista&analyse.no	-

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Author
Rasmus Raabo Reinvang
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